Texas Holdem Starting Hands Probability
Texas Holdem Starting Hands In poker, as in life, it helps to know one’s relative strength. New poker players should understand the hand descriptions and how each hand value helps or hurts the player’s odds of winning. In the case of Texas Hold'em, there's the 2 pocket cards and 5 on the board. This way of working out the probabilities would be the more accurate way - however, just to note, the probabilities worked out on 5 of 52 are practically the same, and far easier to calculate.
One of hold’em’s most crucial decisions is, do I see the flop or don’t I see the flop? In this lesson we’ll examine the importance starting hand selection and what factors you need to consider before deciding whether to hold’em or fold’em.
There are 169 different two card starting hand combinations in hold’em poker. This number assumes, for the sake of argument, that is the same as , or any other suited combination. If you are not dealt a pair, then your starting hand will either be suited or unsuited, and either connected or unconnected (gapped). This means your starting hand will fall into one of the following five categories:
- Pairs – e.g. , ,
- Suited connectors – e.g. , ,
- Connecting cards – e.g. , ,
- Suited unconnected cards – e.g. , ,
- Unconnected cards – e.g. , ,
Unconnected cards might be one, two, three-gapped, or more. The bigger the gap, the less chance you have of hitting a straight. For example, if you hold 73, then you’d need a flop of 456 for the straight. But holding T8, you could flop a straight with 9JQ or 679.
The Best Starting Hands in Hold’em
Let’s start by talking about the best starting hands, which are often referred to as ‘premium hands’. There is some disagreement amongst poker players as to which starting hands are the best, but few would dispute the value of the first of our three main groups, Aces and Kings.
Group 1: AA, KK
These two starting hands are the major players in hold’em. It’s not often you’ll get dealt Aces or Kings. In fact you get either Aces or Kings once in every 110 hands, so it’s not nearly as often as we’d like. Aces are by far the best possible starting hand in hold’em, closely followed by Kings. However, you should be aware that even Aces or Kings can get cracked, and they don’t play too well against multiple opponents. This means you should definitely be raising pre-flop to narrow the field. Extra caution is necessary when playing Kings, because if an Ace falls on the flop then you’re losing to anyone who has a single Ace in their starting hand. While they are very strong hands which most players love to get, they are certainly not unbeatable.
Group 2: QQ, JJ, AKs
Queens and Jacks are great starting hands, and with either of these, you can usually be confident you have the best starting hand. Of course they are dominated by Aces and Kings, but they’re a favourite against all other starting hands. While Queens and Jacks will occasionally run into a player holding either Aces or Kings, it doesn’t happen too often. Play these cards strongly, and always look to raise with them.
Ace-King is known throughout the poker world as Big Slick, and when suited it’s often called Super Slick. While it isn’t a ‘made hand’, unlike a pair, it offers great potential. It’s only a big underdog to Aces and Kings, and even pairs like Queens and Jacks are only slight favourites. The beauty of AK (suited or unsuited), is that it dominates so many other hands like AQ, AJ, AT, and so on. These types of hands are the ones that players usually end up pushing all-in with late in a tournament.
Group 3: TT, AK, AQs, AJs, KQs
This next group of starting hands is also a strong bunch. You should definitely be looking to raise pre-flop with any of these hands too. We’ve already talked about the power of AK, but starting hands like AQs, and AJs, are also very strong and often run into weaker Ace-X combinations. Even though these are all strong starting hands, and most of the time you’ll be winning pre-flop, you have to be careful – particularly a hand like KQs, which you can easily fold to a re-raise.
Suited Cards
You’ll often hear novice players responding to questioning of why they played a particular starting hand with the line “well, because they were suited”. Some suited cards are worth playing and it’s certainly better to start with suited cards than unsuited cards. However, the odds of flopping a flush is 1 out of 118 hands (0.8%) with two suited cards, and you’ll only make a flush after the river around 6.5% of the time. Don’t fall into the trap of playing any two cards just because they happen to be suited – it doesn’t make a big enough difference to make junk hands valuable.
Kicker Issues
The word ‘kicker’ means the smaller of your two cards. Some players play a hand if it contains an Ace with any other card (such as an Ace with a 3 kicker), and this type of play ultimately cost players money and tournaments. For example, let’s suppose a player calls with A6 and the flop comes A83. What does the player do? bet? call? raise? call a big raise? go all-in? What if the flop comes Q63? The player has middle pair – which is very hard to play. Hey, the flop could come A6X – the player has two pair, Aces and sixes but this happens only 1 out of 49 hands (2%). Until you learn when and how to play Ace junk (AX) go slow with it. One good thing about A junk and K junk, is that you do not need to play these hands to learn when they may be profitable. Let experience from other hands and study be your teacher.
Table Conditions
Hold’em starting hands can be a complex subject because every situation is different. If you were to ask a professional poker player, “should I call, raise, or fold this hand pre-flop?” his response would almost certainly be “it depends!” Here are some of the main reasons why it depends:
The Number of Players
The value of certain starting hands is very dependent upon the number of players at the table. Certain starting hands are always going to be under threat against a table of nine or ten players, but the value of these same hands increases when there are fewer players. A starting hand like KJ might be vulnerable against a full table of players, but is considered a strong hand if there are just a few other players.
Position
Your position on the poker table will be a major factor in deciding which starting hands you should play. The later your position in the betting order, the better – because you get to decide what to do after most of your opponents have acted. We’ll talk much more about the importance of position throughout our lessons on Pokerology, but as a first step please see our lesson on the value of position. Playing position can elude us at first because it is a part of poker that lends itself to be exploited through experience. However, you must quickly realize that your position at the table should heavily influence the choice of starting hands that you play. Until a player has a feel or grasp for positional play, just believe and follow some of the suggestions on the subject.
A Raised Pot
Whether or not a pot has been raised should be a very important factor in your decision to play a particular starting hand. Your selection of starting hands should change when the pot has been raised by a reasonable player. If there has been a raise and a re-raise before you’re due to act, then you should only consider playing with a very strong hand. Of course this will also depend on the personality types of the other players and whether the game is very loose or passive.
Starting Hand Charts
When you first start playing poker it can be helpful to use a starting hand chart as a point of reference. We’ve created a couple of starting hand charts that can be used by beginners. Please click on the following links to view these charts (they will open in a new window):
Each of these charts loads as a PDF, meaning they be viewed on screen, bookmarked or better still, can be printed and studied offline.
Beginners can treat starting hand charts as the gospel, but once you know enough about the game to recognize appropriate opportunities, you can deviate because your adjustment may represent a more profitable play. Our starting hand charts are a guide, not a set of intractable rules. There is no such thing as a perfect starting hand chart, because every game is different and there are many variables at work. Game texture and table conditions can’t be measured and included into a neat formula.
There are many factors that may encourage you to tighten or loosen your play from our guidelines. If you have a starting hand that’s not listed on the chart, then there’s a good reason – it should almost always be mucked. But as in all poker decisions the phrase, “It depends” comes to mind. However, before you decide to deviate from our guidelines, have a reason for taking such an action.
Conclusion
Don’t fall into the trap of playing any two cards. Most poker players want to play hands and as a beginner it’s very easy to be seduced by suited cards or picture cards, or any two-card holding that contains an Ace of a King – but if you play hold’em correctly, you’re going to be selective and toss away the vast majority of hands you’re dealt.
When you gain more poker playing experience you can begin to open up your range of starting hands – but until then, proceed with caution and only play the best hands. Loose, promiscuous play will get you into trouble and is the downfall of many players.
In future lessons we’ll expand much more on the topics discussed in this poker lesson and get you to think beyond the actual cards you’re dealt. We also have hours of video footage covering starting hand selection for both no-limit and fixed-limit hold’em – so depending upon your preference, be sure to check them out!
Related Lessons
By David Sasseman
David lives in Atlanta, Georgia, and has played over a million hands online and many thousands of hands in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, and Las Vegas casinos.
Related Lessons
Related Lessons
Types of Starting Hands
by Rich McComas (updated Feb 6, 2004)
Below, I have categorized thirteen types of starting hands, in order of their value. The statistics are borrowed from www.pokalyzer.com which has ran 700 billion simulated hands to produce their results.
1. High Pairs (80%ers)
A high pair is a pair of Aces, Kings, or Queens. Some people count Jacks as high pairs, but I do not as they are not statistically matched to the value of other high pairs. My advice is Raise Pre-Flop and drive the garbage out. If you are in a late position, then you do not need to raise if someone else has driven out the garbage for you. However, if you are in the blind and someone else has raised, you might want to re-raise in order to increase the size of the pot from one more round of betting, and to drive out someone like a small blind who may have limped in with a mediocre hand. Whatever you do, DO NOT limp in with a high pair. If you fail to raise above the big blind and get beat by someone with a suited non-connector, it will be your own fault. If no one else has raised, it is your job to do so in every case.
These are legitimately the best hands in poker, so rather than jam the pot and re-raise pre-flop you should probably just call the raise, or slow-bet. If someone else has raised ahead of you, the garbage will be cleared and you can wait till the flop to reveal a betting strategy. If you flop a King and Ace, and you are holding two King, you will be in the driver's seat and no one will know what hit them.
ODDS: You are going to land any given pair every 220 hands you play, so a pocket pair of aces is extremely rare. Assuming you play 100 hands a night, it will only happen every other night. The chance of landing one of the high pairs, however, is once in every 73 hands, so it should happen to you once every evening. Don't lose out on that opportunity.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
Pair of Aces | 1 | 84.9% |
Pair of Kings | 2 | 82.1% |
Pair of Queens | 3 | 79.6% |
2. Medium Pairs (70%ers)
A medium pair includes Jacks, Tens, Nines, Eights and Sevens. These are medium pairs because odds are that an overcard will flop more than half of the time. Even though the odds of winning with a pair of Jacks is 77.2%, the chances of having the high pair after the flop are only 43%. You are hoping for trips so, but if you don't land them, only continue if you have the high pair possible, and then bet high to throw out the single face cards in the hole. Do not be suckered by landing another board pair, giving you two pair. Either someone else has trips or someone with a face card will get the high pair on the turn or river.
ODDS: The chance of landing any pocket pair of sevens or higher is the same as landing two cards ten or higher. These events happen every 5.4 hands you play (or 16% of the time).
HAND | Rank | Win% |
Pair of Jacks | 4 | 77.2% |
Pair of Tens | 5 | 74.7% |
Pair of Nines | 6 | 71.7% |
Pair of Eights | 7 | 68.7% |
Pair of Sevens | 9 | 65.3% |
3. Ace-Face Suited (65%ers)
An ace with another face card of the same suit is Ace-High suited, which is a winning hand most of the time. Two suited hole cards only draw to a flush 3% of the time, but if they are both high, you have a great shot at winning high pair as well. Because you hold the ace, any draw to a straight is a close-end straight, so your odds are lower than an open-end straight.
ODDS: You will receive two suited cards every 3.3 hands, and it is likely that at least two players at the table have suited cards, so don't get over-excited about just any suited combination.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
AK Suited | 8 | 66.2% |
AQ Suited | 10 | 65.3% |
AJ Suited | 11 | 64.4% |
4. Ace-Face Offsuit (63%ers)
An Ace plus a face card of another suit are the most frequently played hands in Hold 'em. Most people stay in and raise with this hand. If you pair the face card, you will have the high kicker, and if you pair the ace, you will probably have a higher kicker than anyone else. If you draw to a straight, you will beat other straights and at least split the pot.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
AK Offsuit | 12 | 64.5% |
AQ Offsuit | 14 | 63.5% |
AJ Offsuit | 15 | 62.5% |
5. Ace-Low Suited (60%ers)
An ace with anything 10 or lower in the same suit. This is not a hand to go heads up against someone with. This is best played in late position with a lot of callers already in the pot, giving you higher pot odds for a flush draw. This is also a good hand for stealing the blinds if you are on the button, because at least you have one ace in the hole. Mostly, though, I like to play this hand only in No Limit Hold'em because I may need to stay in to the river to get my cards, and I want to be able to go all-in and make a big score if I have the high flush. Earning a minor pot on such low odds just doesn't make as much sense.
POT ODDS: While the chances of winning against random hands are respectable, the chances of winning in heads-up play are not. Two suited pocket cards will flop a flush less than 1% of the time, and complete a flush by the river 6.52% of the time, and two separated cards (such as A5) will hit a draw will hit a draw only about 0.06% of the time. The probability of making a flush, therefore, is 15 to 1 against, meaning that you should really only enter the pot if there are 15 other players in, which never happens, so playing these cards with any regularity is a losing proposition.
If you are on the button, and the flop is cheap, and you do go with Ace-Low suited, then you should fold unless you immediately receive either two cards that match your hole cards or a four flush. The probability of flopping a four-flush is 8.1/1 or 10.9%, and the possibility of completing the flush by the river is 1.9/1 or 35%. When betting on the turn hoping for flush, you really want at least three people in the pot, or enough money for three in the pot.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
AT Suited | 13 | 63.5% |
A8 Suited | 21 | 60.5% |
A6 Suited | 30 | 58.2% |
A4 Suited | 35 | 57.1% |
A2 Suited | 46 | 55.5% |
6. Face-Face Offsuit (58%)
Hands In Texas Holdem
Two face cards are best used when drawing to a straight, so you want to get into the flop as cheaply as possible. If your high card is a King, you will flop an Ace 23% of the time, and if your highest is a queen, a higher card will flop 41% of the time.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
KQ Offsuit | 23 | 60.4% |
KJ Offsuit | 26 | 59.4% |
QJ Offsuit | 39 | 56.9% |
7. Low Pairs (55%ers)
Low pairs are sixes or lower. All low pairs are questionable investments at best. If you all you have are have sixes, the chances are that someone will flop a higher pair 95% of the time. If you have a low pair and you flop a open-end straight draw, stay in, because you own TWO of the hole cards needed for the straight, lowering the odds that you will have to split the pot.
ODDS: You are going to land a pocket pair about once every 16 hands so don't get too excited about the lower pairs. Half the time, your pocket pairs will be high or medium pairs. Stick to those.
POT ODDS: Some people play low pairs in late position hoping to see trips, which is also the hope for higher pairs. If you take a pocket pair to the river, you have a 4.2/1 (19%) chance of making a set or better, so NEVER put money in the pot with this hand unless there are at least five other players. However, I don't bet on low pairs EVER, because it is more likely that someone else will take a straight or a flush or higher trips or a full house to the river and beat my low trips. With low pairs, I would never want to stay in unless I saw trips on the flop, and the chances of that are 7.5/1 (or 11.8%) so I would need 9 other people in the pot to make money, which is a very rare occurrence.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
Pair of Sixes | 17 | 62.7% |
Pair of Fives | 27 | 59.6% |
Pair of Fours | 48 | 56.3% |
Pair of Threes | 66 | 52.8% |
Pair of Deuces | 87 | 49.4% |
8. King Flush Draw (55%ers)
A king plus another card in the same suit is a dangerous hand, unless the Ace is on the board, which will happen one-third of the time that you draw to a flush. These cards should be considered the same value as low pairs, except with a low pair, at least you know if you have trips on the flop. With a King Flush draw, you could have the ace on the flop, and still not get the flush on fifth street, so this is a potentially costly hand. See the section on 'Sucker Hands' for more info.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
KQ Suited | 16 | 62.4% |
KT Suited | 22 | 60.6% |
K8 Suited | 37 | 56.8% |
K6 Suited | 50 | 54.8% |
K4 Suited | 60 | 52.9% |
9. Ace-Low Offsuit (55%ers)
Texas Holdem Starting Hands
An Ace plus a non-suited card lower than a face card is one of the biggest losers in Hold'em. Most players stay in with any ace, especially if you are playing with less than 10 at a table. However, I routinely fold this hand because 75% of the time, with 20 cards dealt into the pocket, someone else is ALSO holding an Ace in the pocket, and more often than not, their kicker will be higher than yours.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
AT Suited | 19 | 61.6% |
A8 Suited | 32 | 58.4% |
A6 Suited | 42 | 55.9% |
A4 Suited | 49 | 54.7% |
A2 Suited | 59 | 53.0% |
10. Suited Connectors (45%ers)
Two suited cards next to each other are only slightly better than non-suited connectors because they help with the straight flush. If you draw to a flush or a straight ONLY, however, you are in serious risk of losing to larger straights or flushes. Don't get too excited about these cards because they share the same suit. The flush draw potential only increases your chances of winning by 3%. I generally fold all suited connectors, occasionally keeping a QJ or JT if I am in late position and several players are in and none have raised. If, after the flop, your hole card is at the low end of the straight, this is a classic 'Sucker Hand.' I know of some good players who love suited connectors, however, because they know on the flop if they have a killer hand, and a further investment will not be required. My attitude is that if you love suited connectors pre-flop, you might as well get equally excited about any low straight draw.
ODDS: You will receive a suited connector once every 46 hands (or 2.1% of the time), and this is so rare, that people tend to jump for joy whenever it happens, not thinking that the changes of getting a 2-4 are even worse.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
JT Suited | 45 | 56.2% |
98 Suited | 83 | 48.9% |
76 Suited | 115 | 42.8% |
54 Suited | 136 | 38.5% |
32 Suited | 163 | 33.1% |
11. Low Straight Draw (42%ers)
Two cards of different suits next to each other in value are going for a straight draw, and they are 3% less likely to win than the comparable suited connectors. Like suited connectors, only stay in if the pot is big because there are lots of other players calling pre-flop. Two low cards not in order is a Trash hand, and is not a Low Straight draw even if they are separated by only one card. Also, 3-2 in the pocket is the worst possible hand in poker even it if is a straight draw. An excellent analysis of unsuited connectors can be found at: http://www.pokerstove.com/unsuited.txt.
Texas Holdem Probability Chart
HAND | Rank | Win% |
JT Offsuit | 57 | 53.8% |
98 Offsuit | 99 | 46.1% |
76 Offsuit | 133 | 39.7% |
54 Offsuit | 153 | 35.0% |
32 Offsuit | 169 | 29.2% |
12. Two Suited Cards (40%ers)
Two other suited cards, with at least one NOT being a face card, results in a four-flush flop only 10% of the time, and only a third of those finish as a flush. This is a loser hand.
HAND | Rank | Win% |
T7 Suited | 84 | 48.7% |
T2 Suited | 118 | 42.5% |
83 Suited | 139 | 38.3% |
73 Suited | 143 | 37.3% |
62 Suited | 156 | 32.8% |
13. Trash Hands
Texas Holdem Starting Hands Ranking
Everything not mentioned above is a trash hand (as are some of the hands above, in my opinion), and there is no coincidence that these are in unlucky category 13. The only reason anyone stays in with these hands is that the flop was so cheap that the couldn't say no, such as being in the big blind with no raises. If you get a trash hand, and you are in the small blind, only consider calling if everyone else has and if you are sure that the person in the big blind won't raise you.